Explaining the Impact of Actions

In this application oriented paper we develop information fusion explanation functions for simulation-based decision support for evaluation of military plans in expeditionary operations. The explanation function is based on a sensitivity analysis on the impact of different actions upon the success of the plan where we systematically vary the alternatives of each action of the plan, one action at a time, keeping all the other actions unchanged in a series of simulations. This sensitivity analysis shows the relative level of importance of making the correct selection of alternative for each action. Using the explanation function, a decision maker can find the most important actions of a plan and focus his attention on actions where successful decision making is crucial to the success of the entire plan. Keywords-decision support; simulation; information fusion; explanation functions, Effects-based Approach to Operations.